Bukele Shuts Down USAID’s DEI Programs

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GCaM Greater Caribbean Monitor
February 02, 2024

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In this issue, which is the last of the year, you will find:

Títulos en este boletín

•Bukele Shuts Down USAID’s DEI Programs

•Texas Challenges Biden on Immigration

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•Bukele Shuts Down USAID’s DEI Programs
625 words | 3 minutes reading time

In El Salvador, the government is waging a discreet battle against what is commonly termed gender ideology. Foreign state aid agencies, not to mention international NGOs, have received clear instructions meant to preserve students’ “moral integrity.”

  • This has put El Salvador at risk of a head-on collision with USAID, the agency in charge of distributing Washington’s foreign aid and cooperation funds. Despite its focus on DEI (diversity, equity, and inclusion), USAID has had no choice but to accept the Salvadoran guidelines.

  • The Ministry of Education has assigned itself the duty of examining all educational materials coming from abroad. Its officials express themselves in clear terms: materials that threaten “our principles” and “the vision of the country we want to build” will not be tolerated.

  • The government is especially concerned about educational materials aimed at basic education students. A few months ago, for example, the appearance of an LGBT flag in a book sparked controversy.

Archivists’ Corner. The fear is not only for the children, but for their parents, who are capable of forming organizations that can embarrass the state. The best example of this is the Parents’ Alliance, which in September spearheaded the dismissal of Carlos Rodríguez Rivas, until then the director of the Teacher Training Institute (INFOD).

  • The controversy arose when Channel 10, El Salvador’s public broadcaster, aired a segment called Let’s Learn At Home, in which the child-heavy audience was taught about the different sexual orientations.

  • The government responded not only with Rodríguez’s dismissal, but also with a “deep restructuring” of INFOD. INFOD has since lost its Channel 10 segments.

  • In general, a conservative drift has been perceived since the appointment of José Mauricio Pineda as Minister of Education. He replaced Carla Hanania, a Belgian-educated sociologist formerly affiliated with OHCHR, the UN’s human rights body.

Between the Lines. As the Ministry of Education stated in August, the government has the sole goal of “watching over children, protecting their mental health, and promoting family values.” But the new guidelines have a second function: to limit the power of NGOs and other foreign organizations present in the country.

  • These organizations act as parallel states. Their nebulous sources of financing, selective spending habits, and the protection afforded by their countries of origin give them immense power.

  • Organizations like USAID manage huge budgets: between April 2021 and February 2023, it obtained US$261M in funds for the so-called Northern Triangle, made up of Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador.

  • El Salvador, the most heavily indebted among Central American nations, cannot give up this money, but it can condition and influence its use. For this reason, San Salvador has told USAID that the only DEI programs it will tolerate are those that seek to guarantee girls’ access to schooling.

Future Trends. There is no need to highlight the ideological singularity of Nayib Bukele’s government, which does not fit within the typical parameters of the Latin American left and right. In any case, his position on education is unlikely to result in a loss of support; on the contrary, in a conservative country like his, he will benefit from it.

  • Bukele is, of course, immensely popular, although his detractors abound, especially abroad. To be honest, no one praises or criticizes the president for his role as a cultural warrior opposed to gender ideology.

  • Beyond seeing him as the redeemer or executioner of El Salvador’s liberties, one must observe the way in which he has managed to constrain the power of USAID and agencies with similar purposes, whether state-affiliated or not.

  • Central American nations are often thought to be powerless. This is not so. States, no matter their size, still exercise formal sovereignty, which is why the NGOs abide by Salvadoran educational guidelines. They had no choice; our sources tell us certain NGOs were threatened with the loss of their legal personality if they refused to comply.

What We’re Watching

Guatemala’s Decision: Exploring What China and Taiwan Actually Offer [link]

Hunter Sosby y Jalen Zeman, The Diplomat

China is a tempting market for the Guatemalan agro-export sector, above all coffee growers, but its promises of infrastructure investment must be met with skepticism. To benefit from a relationship with Beijing, Guatemala would need a free trade agreement, but the experience of the rest of Central America, especially Costa Rica, shows that this usually leads to an enormous trade deficit with China. Furthermore, by maintaining its relations with Taiwan, Guatemala ensures the support of the United States, which resents China’s growing influence in the region.

Nicaragua’s Gold Rush [link]

Oakland Institute

Gold has become one of Nicaragua’s main export items, providing essential income for Daniel Ortega’s regime. Misdeeds are suspected: export figures tend to be higher than production figures, suggesting that Managua “launders” gold from elsewhere, especially Venezuela, and exports it to the United States as its own. What is more, U.S. sanctions against the Nicaraguan gold sector are in place, but they are not enforced.

Who are the candidates to the Panamanian presidency? [link]

Milagro Vallecillos, Voice of America

As former congressman Adolfo Valderrama, a member of the opposition Panameñista Party, said a few days ago, Ricardo Martinelli remains the favorite in the run-up to the May 5 elections. The other candidates recognize that they only have a chance at the presidency if Panama’s courts rule Martinelli ineligible. The former president was last year sentenced to 10 years’ imprisonment on corruption charges. He has appealed; the issue will have to be decided by the Supreme Court.

Mexico’s US natural gas dependency tested in election year [link]

Tom Wilson y Christine Murray, Financial Times

Mexican natural gas production has been in decline for years; the lack of investment, along with low production costs in Texas, has left Mexico exposed to the climatic conditions and political swings of the United States. At a time of political crisis in Washington, with a White House that actively discourages investment in natural gas, the risks for Mexico are enormous. This is not the country’s only energy deficiency: Mexico is a large oil producer, but on account of its severely lacking refining capacity, it is also the third largest fuel importer in the world. In 2022, it spent $41.77 billion on the import of refined oil products, especially gasoline and diesel.

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•Mexico, Stuck In Its Ways, Risks Angering the United States
654 words | 3 minutes reading time

Last week, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned a lower court decision barring the White House from dismantling a razor wire barrier in Eagle Pass, a Texas border town. The state government wants to keep the Border Patrol, which has orders to remove the barriers, from accessing the site.

  • Governor Greg Abbott is interfering with the federal government’s ability to regulate immigration. He is doing this consciously, arguing that Washington has “broken” its constitutional compact with the states, leaving him with the duty of protecting Texas from “invasion.”

  • There has been talk of a rebellion by Abbott, a Republican, but he has not yet fallen into disobedience. In truth, the battle is more political than legal, hence why at least 25 states have sided with Texas.

  • With five votes in favor and four against, the Supreme Court simply established that the federal government cannot be sanctioned if it decides to remove the razor wire. This makes sense in non-ideological terms: the Court has previously maintained that the executive enjoys primacy in immigration matters. Abbott’s argument, of course, is that the executive is inept and ill-intentioned.

Between the Lines. Democrats face a very damaging political situation. The electorate, increasingly concerned about the crisis on the border with Mexico, perceives them as the “weak” party on immigration. The Republicans, aware that the elections are fast approaching, do not have the slightest interest in negotiating.

  • Polls suggest that Donald Trump, who is virtually guaranteed the Republican nomination, would win against Biden. Trump is self-evidently the law-and-order candidate. 

  • Trump has a maximalist agenda and has instructed his party not to compromise and only accept “perfect” solutions to immigration. In the words of the former president, “A bad border deal is far worse than no border deal.”

  • The Republicans hold the federal budget hostage. They refuse to approve further funding for Ukraine, with some arguing the time has come for a peace treaty with Russia, something unacceptable for the Ukrainians, who will never accept their territorial losses. The mediocre gains of their recent offensive may force their hand, however.

Data. Immigration will define the U.S. elections, which works in Trump’s favor. The images emerging from the U.S.-Mexico border have torn up the post-pandemic paradigm, under which the majority of voters considered the economy, and above all, inflation as their main concerns.

  • 35% of Americans consider immigration to be the most pressing issue ahead of the elections. 32% think the same about inflation, although it should be noted that the concerns are not mutually exclusive.

  • According to Gallup, Joe Biden has an average approval rate of 39.8%, the second lowest recorded by a U.S. president during the third year of their term. Only Jimmy Carter, who failed to win reelection, obtained a lower score.

  • Incidentally, the economy is still bullish; the White House has counteracted the Federal Reserve’s tightening with a loose fiscal policy. There are those who talk about a slowdown in 2024, but the truth is that inflation fell from 9.1% in June 2022 to 3.4% in December 2023. The main reason for Biden’s unpopularity is immigration, not the economy.

The Balance. Central America is an essential part of the solution to the immigration crisis, as it fulfills a double function: it is a source of, and bridge for, migrants. Faced with a very possible Republican victory in November, countries like Guatemala and Honduras must prepare for a stricter policy from Washington.

  • This must worry the governments of the region. Politicians tend to emphasize the human tragedy of the crisis, but frankly, the phenomenon is in their interest, since remittances are the best source of hard currency for these countries.

  • In fiscal year 2023, the United States reported 2.46 million encounters between illegal migrants and Border Patrol. In 2022, similar, albeit slightly lower, figures were recorded.

  • Beyond the electoral result, there will be a change of course in the United States. Central America must accept it and try to take advantage of it through investments that serve as an antidote to the emigration epidemic.