Guatemala Repays Washington With Immigration

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We welcome you to the Greater Caribbean Monitor (GCaM). In this issue, you will find:

•Guatemala Repays Washington With Immigration

•Panamanians Voted for Mulino With Martinelli in Mind

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•Guatemala Repays Washington With Immigration
553 words | 3 minutes reading time

This Tuesday, Guatemala hosted the third Los Angeles Declaration Ministerial Meeting. Guatemalan president Bernardo Arévalo and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken were among those present. At the meeting, which was attended by 20 countries, cooperation mechanisms were addressed to “make migration a safer and more organized phenomenon.”

• Despite these bien pensant platitudes, it is evident that the White House, having grown keenly aware of how immigration puts reelection at risk, is scrambling to stem the unprecedented tide.

Why It Matters. U.S. officials landed in Guatemala at a critical juncture. Less than 48 hours before the meeting, Arévalo addressed the nation, announcing his wish to introduce legislation to oust Attorney General Consuelo Porras, his political archrival. Thus far this week, Arévalo’s efforts have failed; indeed, quorum was not met at the congressional session where the legislation was to be debated.

• Before the U.S. delegation’s arrival, 11 members of the U.S. Congress, among them María Elvira Salazar (R-FL), denounced the White House’s “overreach” in Guatemalan domestic matters.

• The Republican representatives signed a letter in which they denounced Blinken and USAID administrator Samantha Power’s intention to “compel Guatemalan legislators to vote in one way or another,” through “sanctioning tools.”

• The letter was made public the same day that the Guatemalan Congress was to discuss Arévalo’s proposed legislation. As mentioned above, the ruling party, Semilla (left), was unable to muster the necessary support, as 107 deputies failed to attend the session. 

Between the Lines. The United States, joined by the EU and the international at large, played a key role in guaranteeing Arévalo took office. Faced with attempts by groups that sought to discredit the electoral results, the White House, aided by the OAS, deployed all the tools at its disposal, including individual sanctions, to protect Arévalo.

• U.S.-Guatemalan relations have been excellent since then. Arévalo is a Washington darling, hence his being rewarded with hosting this week’s ministerial meeting. 

• So far in 2024, Guatemala has received more than 23,000 of its deported nationals, who were repatriated with Mexican support. Needless to say, Mexican president AMLO has striven to be a resolute, if erratic, U.S. ally on immigration.

• In immigration terms, Mexico is an extension of the United States. Thus, Guatemala is fast becoming the true buffer state at a time when President Joe Biden struggles to rise in the polls, primarily due to economic worries and the chaos in the U.S.-Mexico border. 

The Balance. The meeting of ministers was held behind closed doors. It was followed by a press conference in which the importance of these bilateral efforts was emphasized. Little was said about the concrete steps to alleviate the crisis; little, in any case, appears to have been achieved at the meeting.  

• República asked Guatemalan foreign minister Carlos Ramiro Martínez if the country had taken on any additional commitments. Martínez merely stated that Guatemala would continue to “better coordinate our response capacity on the issue of returnees.”

• The minister was asked what steps Northern Triangle states would take to stop migrants from arriving in Nicaragua via charter flights, to which Martínez replied that the issue was not addressed and that Nicaragua is not party to the Los Angeles Declaration.

• Blinken’s visit to Guatemala appears to have served a dual purpose: to provide diplomatic backing to Arévalo’s political agenda, and at the same time, to continue defending its interests in combating immigration. One cannot say he achieved the latter.

•Panamanians Voted for Mulino With Martinelli in Mind
617 words | 3 minutes reading time

Commanding 34.23% of the vote, José Raúl Mulino (RM, right), has been elected president of Panama. The runner-up, Ricardo Lomabana (MOCA), convinced 24.59% of voters. The center-left PRD, outgoing president Laurentino Cortizo’s party, was trounced, managing a mere 5.88%. It is considered politically moribund.

The News. Since Panamanian elections lack a run-off, Mulino’s relatively small percentage was sufficient to clinch the presidency. This is typical in the country; indeed, Mulino’s margin over his nearest competitor was larger than usual. In recent memory, only former president Ricardo Martinelli, of whom Mulino is a protégé, managed to win more convincingly, securing 60.03% of the vote in 2009.

Why It Matters. Panama, formerly regarded as a regional success story, is in dire straits. Its sovereign debt and public deficit have ballooned during Cortizo’s term in office. The Panama Canal is only now recovering from a severe drought caused by El Niño. 

• Mass protests last year led to the closure of the Cobre Panamá mine, which made up 5% of the country’s GDP and 75% of its goods exports. The mine’s Canadian operator, First Quantum Minerals, has initiated arbitration proceedings against Panama, demanding $10 billion in compensation. 

• Martinelli was initially the frontrunner, but his candidacy was outlawed by Panamanian courts, which sentenced him to almost 11 years in prison on corruption charges. Martinelli, a conservative, has since sought refuge at the Nicaraguan embassy in Panama City, which has been renovated to his liking.

• Mulino was Martinelli’s running mate. After the former president’s conviction, legal challenges threatened his candidacy until days before the elections, but the courts, which have shown themselves pliable to public opinion, ultimately ruled he could run. 

Between the Lines. Panamanians ticked Mulino’s name on their ballots, but in truth, they were voting for Martinelli. Few in Panama question the legitimacy of the corruption charges against the former president, yet they are fond of him and defend his term in office, often deploying the phrase “Robó, pero hizo” (“He stole, but he did”). 

• The citizenry entrusted the state to Martinelli’s anointed. Voters do not seem bothered by Martinelli’s corruption, since they nostalgically associate him with boom times. Mulino, however, will find it difficult to replicate Martinelli’s performance, which relied on a more favorable macroeconomic outlook.

• Curiously, the electorate considers corruption its main priority; polls suggest they think of Mulino, despite his links to Martinelli, as the most honest of candidates. In reality, voters are mostly opposed to the political elite, otherwise known as rabiblancos, and neither Mulino nor Martinelli are considered members of this “caste.”  

• Moreover, voters are willing to look past corruption accusations if they believe candidates to be capable of effective governance. This explains Martinelli’s long-running popularity; above all, he is regarded as a great builder and believer in infrastructure. 

Yes, But. Mulino has gone from being a secondary figure in a winning duo to facing the challenge of governing a country in crisis. Beyond the past government’s mining troubles, Panama’s public debt is soon set to reach $50 billion. Government data suggests the sum grew 87% during Cortizo’s term.

• To make matters worse, the country’s social security system is bankrupt; mining royalties, which the state now will not receive, had been earmarked for it. Further indebtment will be expensive: Panamanian bonds are no longer considered investment-grade.

• Martinelli facilitated Mulino’s election, but the president-elect faces a much more complex panorama than the one the former president found in 2009. He certainly appears keen to “do,” which in Panama means to invest. He has promised to build additional reservoirs for the Panama Canal, thus staving off the risk of further disruptive droughts.

• The president-elect will soon have to accept that his job will be much more complicated than he expected even three months ago. His honeymoon period will be exceedingly short.