Iran and Israel’s Sisyphean Attack Loop

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We welcome you to the Greater Caribbean Monitor (GCaM). In this issue, you will find:

•Panama: Martinelli Set To Win Despite Not Running

•Iran and Israel’s Sisyphean Attack Loop

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•Panama: Martinelli Set To Win Despite Not Running
646 words | 3 minutes reading time

Panama will hold elections on May 5. Amid an environment of deep aversion towards the rabiblancos—the political caste—former president Ricardo Martinelli has the upper hand. But Martinelli is not a candidate; he was disqualified, sentenced to almost 11 years in prison, and is currently taking refuge in the Nicaraguan embassy in Panama, which has been renovated for his comfort.

• His candidacy was inherited by José Raúl Mulino, his running mate. Polls give him between 29% and 37% of the vote, far surpassing the other candidates and even the portion of voters who remain undecided.

• This level of support is not unusually low. Panamanian elections lack a runoff; its most recent presidents have come to power with around one-third of the vote. Martinelli, elected in 2009, was the exception, obtaining 60.03%.

• Mulino cannot be certain of the result. The Supreme Court is still mulling the possibility of voiding his candidacy, arguing that he was not his party’s nominee. This is obvious, since Martinelli was the victor in the internal primary.

Between the Lines. Panamanian presidents govern for five years and do not have the right to immediate reelection. This suits the current president, Laurentino Cortizo (PRD, center), who will avoid what would surely be an electoral humiliation. Polls suggest his party’s candidate, José Gabriel Carrizo, is only supported by 3-6% of the electorate. 

• The average Panamanian, however, believes the political elite will continue to exercise power despite its unpopularity. Attempts to invalidate the Martinelli-Mulino ticket intensify these feelings.

• This discontent against the rabiblancos is noticeable in polls. Despite the country’s legitimate economic problems, corruption remains the priority issue for 57% of Panamanians, who deem Mulino the most honest candidate.

• This may be considered strange: Martinelli, it should be remembered, was convicted on corruption charges. Despite his sins, the former president is fortunate in that he is seen as separate from the political elite and his presidency evokes nostalgic memories of prosperity.

The Data. Regardless of the winner of these elections, Panama faces a troubling outlook. Two weeks ago, Fitch reduced the country’s credit rating. Panamanian bonds are thus no longer considered investment-grade. The country’s public debt has grown by 87% under the current government and now stands at $47,000 billion.

• The government has criticized Fitch’s decision as “reckless,” but cannot refute its justifications. At the end of last year, the country declared a mining moratorium, shutting down the Cobre Panamá mine, which represented 5% of the country’s GDP and 75% of its goods exports.

• The mine’s Toronto-headquartered operator, First Quantum Minerals, wishes to keep a low profile until after the election, with a view towards negotiating with the victor. This has not kept it from suing Panama and demanding $10 billion in compensation. KOMIR, the South Korean state-owned mining company, demands another $747 million.

• It should be noted that a large part of the projecting mining income was already earmarked for the country’s Social Security Fund, whose largest expense, the Disability, Old Age, and Death program, has an actuarial deficit of $70 billion and a current deficit of $1.5 billion.

The Balance. The “Panamanian dream” always had its nuances; the real estate boom in Panama City, which has become a financial center, could never cloak the lack of development in the rest of the country. The country is certainly facing its most consequential elections since the overthrow of dictator Manuel Noriega in 1989.

• It is difficult to see Mulino’s candidacy being suspended. Such a decision would fuel widespread ire against the Supreme Court, which on past occasions has been sensitive—perhaps too sensitive, as with mining—to public opinion.

• A hypothetical President Mulino will find it difficult to relive the glories of Martinelli’s term. Martinelli benefited from an enviable macroeconomic outlook, as well as the Panama Canal’s stellar performance—a far cry from its current drought-stricken circumstances.

• Yet Panama will not become irrelevant. The Darien Gap, crossed by 520,000 migrants in 2023, is vitally important to the United States as it seeks to reduce immigration.

•Iran and Israel’s Sisyphean Attack Loop
677 words | 3 minutes reading time

In the early hours of April 14, Iran attacked Israel with some 330 drones and ballistic as well as cruise missiles. It was the largest drone operation in history, although the Iranians failed in their attempt to overwhelm Israeli missile defenses, the Iron Dome. Israel has since responded by dropping missiles on Isfahan. 

• Some seven projectiles landed in both Israel and Jordan, causing damage to the Nevatim air base, whose operations were not impacted. 31 civilians were treated for anxiety or minor injuries. An Israeli Bedouin girl suffered serious shrapnel injuries.

• The attack, codenamed Operation True Promise, was an attempt to avenge the Israeli bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus. That attack occurred on April 1 and left 16 dead, including Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, of the elite Quds Force.

• Iran, like Israel at the beginning of the month, was criticized by the international community. Tehran has deemed this a fair price to pay in exchange for saving face, which is why, after the bombings, its ambassador to the UN said the operation “can be deemed concluded.”

Between the Lines. The most prescient analysts have seen in the Iranian operation an attempt to keep up appearances and preserve Iran’s honor in response to the attack on its diplomatic mission in Syria. There is some truth to this: Operation True Promise caused little damage and was essentially symbolic.

• This explains why Iran communicated its intentions to Washington, not to mention the Arab and European capitals, giving ample time for flights to be rerouted and arrangements made. Tehran’s intentions were always limited.

• Washington called in its allies, France, the United Kingdom, and Jordan, to intercept missiles and ensure the attack did not escalate. Anonymous U.S. military sources suggest that it was the allies, and not the Israelis, who shot down most of the missiles.

• Despite the symbolic nature of the attack, this remains an unprecedented event. Tehran and Jerusalem have been entangled in a proxy war for almost 40 years; they had never been entangled in a direct confrontation. One cannot underestimate the “chaos factor.”

The Region. The last few months have posed a dangerous state of affairs for Israeli diplomacy, which has been at pains to defend its government’s actions in Gaza. South Africa led the anti-Israeli crusade, but several Latin American countries joined it, Brazil being the most important one.

• With this, Israel’s diplomatic isolation has been somewhat relieved, although Washington remains eager to limit Israeli war goals. Certain Latin American states—Argentina, Guatemala, Paraguay, and Uruguay—have been very supportive.

• Almost all Latin American foreign ministries have released their pro forma communiqués, but Colombian president Gustavo Petro could not help but criticize the OAS statement condemning Iran, which he classified as “geopolitical propaganda.”

• Petro, in a tweet that appears to have been deleted, called for peace and accused the United States of sponsoring Israel’s “genocide.” Nicaragua unsurprisingly chose to speak of the “crimes [...] perpetrated against the Palestinian people by [...] Israel.” Venezuela attributed all responsibility to Israel.

The Balance. In light of the weekend, the Middle Eastern panorama has changed. For now, Israel can count on Washington’s support, but the White House is likely to look askance if attacks on Gaza intensify. Iran, for its part, has shown that it is willing to act, but does not want open war; its strategic position is complex and arguably unfortunate.

• Iran, meanwhile, is still calculating what it has gained or lost. On the one hand, it has raised Israel’s diplomatic profile and attracted retaliation. On the other hand, it caused the uproar it wanted and was able to see—firsthand—how Israel and its allies would respond in the event of war.

• The situation, already chaotic, has become more unstable and unpredictable. For now, everything seems somewhat controlled and choreographed, but as the bombs fall, the room for miscalculation grows. Crucially, the Arab states, represented by Jordan, which undoubtedly shares intelligence with Riyadh, have grown in influence. 

• Little has changed in Latin America. In the Israeli-Palestinian, and therefore, Israeli-Iranian conflict, the region has a clear ideological separation; the left tends to vilify Israel, while the right cheers it on, whether in Gaza or elsewhere.