Whispers of Mogadishu in Port-au-Prince

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GCaM Greater Caribbean Monitor
March 15, 2024

Dear all,

We welcome you to the Greater Caribbean Monitor (GCaM). In this issue, you will find:

Títulos en este boletín

•Whispers of Mogadishu in Port-au-Prince

•The White House Combats the Nicaraguan Migrant Highway

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•Whispers of Mogadishu in Port-au-Prince
602 words | 3 minutes reading time

Stranded in Puerto Rico, Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry has pledged to resign following the formation of a transitional presidential council. This comes after leaders of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) met in Jamaica last Monday to try to resolve disagreements between the different Haitian factions.

  • The Kingston round took place at the height of the crisis. The new council is expected to be formed in the coming days. It will inherit a collapsed state with little effective power. A state of emergency has been decreed until at least April 3.

  • The U.S. embassy remains open, but this weekend the European Union and the United States evacuated their non-essential diplomatic staff. Washington, for its part, has promised to allocate an additional $100M million to peacekeeping efforts.

  • For now, thousands of residents of the capital, Port-au-Prince, have been forced to leave their homes as a result of widespread violence. The criminal gangs behind the attacks do not hide their objective: ousting Prime Minister Henry.

The Exile. Since last week, Henry has not been able to return to Haiti. He left Guyana for Nairobi, where he was supposed to sign the agreement authorizing a Kenya-led UN peacekeeping mission. Upon returning to the Caribbean, criminal gangs wreaked havoc upon Port-au-Prince, attacking the airport and National Police stations.

  • Henry attempted to land in the Dominican Republic. Santo Domingo was unforgiving: “He is not welcome,” said the government. Dominican president Luis Abinader’s priority is to avoid any spillover. 

  • Santo Domingo has not withdrawn its diplomats from Haiti, but the Dominican president has said his country “cannot do more” for Haiti. The border between the two countries remains open, although with additional security measures.

  • Washington has offered some support to Henry, allowing him to land in San Juan, Puerto Rico, but has urged him to relinquish power. Henry was supposed to leave power on February 7, but he ultimately refused, arguing that holding elections was impossible under current conditions.

Panorama. Haiti has not had stable authorities since the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in July 2021. After a brief interregnum, Prime Minister Henry also became interim president. The mystery surrounding the murder remains, but in any case, the Haitian state has collapsed.

  • The last elections were held in 2016. The next elections were scheduled for October 2019, but were postponed. Every so often, a new date is announced and subsequently pushed back.

  • Criminal gangs control more than 80% of Port-au-Prince and are linked to countless killings and rapes. One of the criminal leaders, Jimmy “Babekyou” (“Barbecue”) Chérizier, did not hide that Henry’s remaining in power would lead to “genocide.”

  • The Kenyan-led UN mission was supposed to deliver Haiti from chaos. However, Nairobi has suspended the operation, arguing that “without a political administration in Haiti, there is no anchor on which a police deployment can rest.”

Future. Haiti is between Scylla and Charybdis. The international community is stunned by the collapse of the state and no country, including the United States, is willing to intervene directly. The Dominican Republic, the only country with a border with Haiti, would seem to hope for the sudden appearance of a vast sea between the two countries.

  • Kenyan president William Ruto seeks prestige by intervening in Haiti, but there are doubts regarding the operational capacity of the 1,000 Kenyan police officers earmarked for the peacekeeping mission.

  • Washington is willing to finance any attempt at stabilization, but is much more reluctant to send soldiers. An intervention in Haiti, after all, would likely prove long, expensive, and unpopular.

  • It is likely, then, that a weak transitional government will be appointed. The situation may improve slightly, but disorder will remain and immigration to the United States and the Dominican Republic will continue.

What We’re Watching

Could there be a US-Mexico trade war? [link]

The Economist

Last year, Mexico replaced China as the United States’ top trading partner. The country’s U.S.-bound exports now total $476 billion, while China’s have fallen to $427 billion. This would seem to vindicate nearshoring, but the truth is that China has embraced a strategy of investing in countries with privileged access to the U.S. market. Beijing is emphasizing the production of intermediate goods that are then employed in finished goods manufactured in countries like Mexico, from where they are exported to the United States and pay little or no tariffs. Washington, of course, dislikes this trend and suspects Mexico hides the true volume of its Chinese imports.

Latin American development bank to ramp up lending after reforms [link]

Michael Stott, Financial Times

The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) will increase the size of its credit portfolio, lending an additional $112 billion over the next decade. The IDB lends around $24 billion per year and will go on to lend around $35.2 billion per year. After reforms, the bank has also said that it will grant fewer loans, but that those it grants will be larger and will be evaluated based on their results and merits.

Costa Rica asks the EU for help with drug trafficking and immigration [link]

Mirra Banchón, Deutsche Welle

Costa Rica has what its government claims is the world’s third-highest number of asylum claimants. 800,000 arrivals are expected this year, of which 86% will likely be Nicaraguan. At the same time, the country is experiencing an extraordinary crime wave. In 2023, Costa Rica’s murder rate rose to 17 per 100,000 inhabitants; historically, it has been between 9.5 and 12.1 per 100,000 inhabitants.

El Salvador Eliminates Income Tax on Investment From Overseas [link]

Matthew Bristow y Michael D. McDonald, Bloomberg

The measure was approved quickly and some of its details are still unknown, but in general, it will ensure that the Salvadoran tax regime does not tax foreign income. In this way, El Salvador would approach the territorial model employed in Guatemala. As representatives of Nuevas Ideas, Nayib Bukele’s party, have said, after achieving the “security miracle,” the next objective is the “economic miracle.” The country is in a difficult economic situation, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 80.9%. It should be noted that in 2023, remittances, which will also be tax-exempt, exceeded $8 billion.

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•The White House Combats the Nicaraguan Migrant Highway
535 words | 3 minutes reading time

The Biden administration has hardened its stance against the Nicaraguan government’s migrant smuggling schemes. 

Panorama. With the November elections fast approaching, President Joe Biden is making an effort to appear tougher  on immigration. Last week, the U.S. Department of State announced new sanctions and visa restrictions against the owners and directors of charter airlines ferrying migrants to Nicaragua, from where they start their trek to the United States.

Highlights. This measure serves as a response to the immense volume of migrants, many of them from outside the Americas, using Nicaragua as a trampoline to the United States. For the Ortega regime, this is both good business and a geopolitical weapon to be used against Washington. Indeed, since last year, Nicaragua has served as a transit point for migrants from Haiti, Cuba, India, Africa, and South America. 

  • A similar strategy was formerly deployed in Venezuela. Migrants would land there and embark on the wearying journey across the Darien Gap.

  • The new route created by Nicaragua primarily serves flights coming from Venezuela and Colombia, creating a shortcut to the United States. Upon arrival, migrants pay a $150 entry fee in addition to their airfare. 

  • According to Manuel Orozco, director of the Migration, Remittances and Development Program at Inter-American Dialogue, in 2023, “[Nicaraguan civil aviation authorities] facilitated the transport of at least 100,000 people. Of these, two-thirds were Cubans and Haitians, and the rest came from third countries.”

Between the Lines. Other studies estimate that up to 450,000 migrants have entered Nicaragua on their way to the United States. The data is unofficial, since Nicaragua does not report the number of people who landed in the country. Additionally, migrants’ passports are not stamped on arrival. Based on estimates, the Ortega regime earned around $67.5 million from migrant trafficking in 2023 alone.

  • In December 2023, a flight from India – bound for Nicaragua – was detained in France on suspicion of human trafficking.

  • Upon grounding the flight, French authorities discovered that the 303 passengers were traveling voluntarily. After being deported, Indian police claimed they had paid tens of thousands of dollars to reach their final destination: the United States. The Nicaraguan government approved the passenger list before takeoff.

  • According to Orozco, more than 500 charter flights of this sort are thought to have occurred. Between April and June 2023, Nicaraguan authorities hired Dubai-based firms to train officials “in the international handling of procedures for this type of flights.”

Why Does It Matter? Biden has tried to stop illegal migration by expanding legal routes to reach the United States. The immigration restrictions on executives, owners, and senior officials of private flight companies are the result of the failure of his previous policies.

  • With elections just around the corner, and in light of Trump’s commanding lead in the polls, Biden needs to take drastic measures against immigration. His reelection, which most bookies would consider unlikely, depends on it.

  • Yesterday, the Department of State announced that it will impose “restrictions on the import and export of U.S. origin defense articles and defense services destined for or originating in Nicaragua.”

  • The Department attributed its decision to its desire to protect Nicaraguan citizens’ human rights. That may be so, but Washington is evidently seeking the means to create increasingly complicated, involved obstacles for the Ortega regime.